Middletown's Vitals

Comment/Analysis

Last month's discussion of how we should vote (at large versus districts) prompted thoughts - in my twisted mind anyway - about population distribution in Middletown. Most of our council-folk hail from the newer outlying ('suburban' and 'rural', to use the PCD terms) neighborhoods in town - at least, based on the addresses listed on the 'common council' page on the city website (I'm not sure how accurate or up-to-date this page is and would be happy to hear comments on this or, of course, any other aspect of this post). Two or at most three live within or fairly close to the older 'urban' core of the city, depending on how you define 'urban'. The question of how our councilmember distribution stacks up against the distribution of people in Middletown led me to ask Bill Warner, Director of the city's Planning, Conservation, and Development Department (PCD), whether his office had any maps of town that show current population density and distribution. It turns out that this can be visually represented with the GIS software, and Bill provided an interesting map which I have reproduced above (with permission). I still haven't figured out what it all means, especially in the context of voting and council representation, but it sure is pretty. I've had a long-standing interest in Middletown's historical demography, so this map is serious eye-candy for me (thanks Bill, and thanks for answering all my questions about the map).

The 'urban', 'suburban', and 'rural' areas of the city, as defined in the current draft Plan of Conserv-ation and Develop-ment, may be seen in this map (Map A from the 'Plan'). (You may need to click on the map itself to get the text to appear legibly.) Note that the text in the map refers to 'planning tools to promote sustainable development'. Such planning tools include bike paths, the purchase and preservation of open space in rural areas, the increase (within reasonable limits) of population density in the downtown, enhanced pedestrianization, alternative transportation, etc. Bill Warner noted in a follow-up email that the city has been successful in preserving open space, developing the downtown commercial potential, and in allowing increased density where infrastructure (sewer lines, roads, electricity, etc.) exists.

On how to read the density map, Bill Warner pointed out that it is only as good as the data, and the data come from the 2000 census. According to the draft 'Plan of Conservation and Development' (see both chapter 2 on 'Population', esp. section 2.3, and chapter 8 on the 'Addressing the Urban Dilemma'), the 2000 census indicated a precipitous decline in population in the core census tracks of the city between 1990 and 2000. How accurate is this decline? I recall from conversations a few years ago that there had been questions raised about the accuracy of the 2000 census count in the downtown, particularly in the area between Wesleyan University and Main Street. Doubts revolved around the timing of the count and whether students were away during the census operations or were not included in the count for definitional reasons. In any case, according to the discussion in chapter 2 of the draft 'Plan', while the overall population of Middletown increased by 6.5% between 1990 and 2000, the downtown or 'urban' census tracts 5411, 5415 and 5416 have lost, on average, 35% of their populations. The biggest decline was in 5416, which lost about half of its population (from about 2700 to 1300 people). Meanwhile Westfield (census tract 5414) saw the greatest increase, at 15% (from about 6700 to 7700). (Note that these population number estimates by me are based on an 'eyeballing' of the bar charts in the draft 'Plan'; the exact percentages are from the 'Plan' itself).

For those policy wonks among you, the census tracts 5411, 5415, and 5416 refer to:

5411 - most of the 'North End' and the Miller-Bridge area
5415 - Wesleyan University, a little of the 'Village District' and the 'North End', and the area down to Bretton Road
5416 - the downtown, a little of the 'North End', and the eastern portion of the 'Village District'.

Census tract 5417, which is also included in the 'urban' area on the map above and pockets of which are also identified in the 'Addressing the Urban Dilemma' chapter as posing key challenges, is bounded by William Street and the river to the north, Eastern Drive on the east, and Mill Street on the south - essentially the old 'South Farms' village. (This is the census tract that I live in, though I'm on the boundary of 5415 too.)

Having a tough time keeping all this straight? Me too. These images may help:


Census Tract 5411











Census Tract 5415












Census Tract 5416












Census Tract 5417












Is your house or apartment not in one of these tracts? Not to worry. The federal government is here to help. You can map your census tract courtesy of the U.S. Census Bureau.

As readers will have noted, the 'Plan of Conservation and Development' is currently being re-drafted. If anyone is interested - and frankly, everyone should be, since the 'Plan' will essentially inform spending decisions in a variety of city departments over the coming decade(s) - there are plenty of opportunities to learn more and express your thoughts. The entire draft is up on the PCD webpage. And the portions of the 'Plan' will be presented and discussed at several upcoming meetings, including two this week:

Design Review and Preservation Board-
Wednesday, March 11, 2009, 5:30 PM, B-20
&
Planning and Zoning Commission-
Wednesday, March 11, 2009, 7:00 PM, Room 208 [correction, 3/08/09: the 'Plan' is on the agenda and the P&Z commission welcomes public comment, but the full agenda suggests it will not be 'presented' as such. If any P&Z commissioner could clarify this in the comments section, that would be great.]

The agenda for each meeting is listed on the PCD webpage and on the right column of the Middletown Eye, under 'This Week: Meetings and Events'. The Design Review and Preservation Board meeting looks to be particularly interesting. You can view the extra-detailed agenda at the DRPB blog (kudos to Michiel Wackers).

In addition, P&Z Commissioner Catherine Johnson has organized a series of 'input sessions' at Russell Library over the coming months. They are scheduled for 6:30 pm in the Hubbard Room, Russell Library:

March 18 Wednesday [correction 3/08/09: was rescheduled for the 19th, but changed back to the 18th]
April 16 Thursday
May 21 Thursday
June 17 Wednesday

So, fellow readers, we have no excuse. Opportunities abound to shape the future of our fair city. We must show up to one or more of these meetings, learn about the challenges facing Middletown, and add our voices to the mix.